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Doing the "Las Vegas Real Estate Limbo" - How Low Can We Go & For How Long?

Las Vegas Area Real Estate Median Price Trends 2002-2010

 

Las Vegas Area Real Estate Median Price Trends 2002-2010

I found it rather interesting to pull these Las Vegas residential resale home sale statistics & trends from 2002-2010.  Obviously we are sub year 2002 pricing – which is the earliest I could go!  I have actually seen some areas (mostly in the east part of the valley) that were sub 1985 prices!

Notice how the increased demand for housing (through very relaxed mortgage underwriting standards) pushed the prices up in 2004 & 2005.  Notice how the lack of demand pushed prices down and subsequent increases of default took those “we can finance a ham sandwich” mortgages away creating sharp declines.  Even with high amounts of units purchased the last several years shows that we continue to defy basic economic laws of supply and demand through continued depreciation.

I have been working an “I could tell you but then I would have to kill you” job doing fraud reports for an investor since the beginning of the year.  Something I have noticed in that time frame – doing that special job – is that we haven’t even pushed through 3/4 of the underwater inventory.  Oddly enough before I started doing this I thought we had already worked through 3/4 of the inventory and gave it another 2-5 years of living in the depths of ground zero foreclosure hell.  One of my favorite marketing chicks for a title company sent me a report this week that confirmed that number – 70 some odd percent of homes are still underwater in the valley.

Knowing what I know today, living & working the foreclosure nightmare, I have to adjust that number upwards from 2-5 years to 8-10 years of working through all of this mess.  Unless they start financing ham sandwiches again – which I doubt!

I will do these again in January after we close out 2011.  So far YTD (Nov 18, 2011) we have 41,706 units closed with a median price of $109,900.


Thanks,  Renée Burrows 702-580-1783 Broker/Owner, REALTOR®
 

 

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Comment balloon 8 commentsRenée Donohue • November 18 2011 06:06PM

Comments

Renee...We are seeing sub 2000 prices here, they rose through 2006 -and have been declining for 5 years. I hate to say it but we see a 10 year cycle repeat ( it could be 5 more years till a predicable price improvement takes hold). Great graph to illustrate your points.

Posted by Steve Loynd, 800-926-5653, White Mountains NH ( Alpine Lakes Real Estate Inc., ) over 6 years ago

Holy absorption rate Batgirl, this looks like the work of the Joker.  Atomic batteries to power, turbines to speed, OK Batman, we're ready to move out!  

Posted by Kevin J. May, Serving the Treasure & Paradise Coasts of Florida (Florida Supreme Realty) over 6 years ago

Oh Renee, your way with words . . . "depths of ground zero foreclosure hell" . . . pretty much sums it up.  It's not great news for property owners.  I think Las Vegas would be a great investment for a 2nd home.  Here's your new marketing campaign "Buy Vegas . . . it's the New Palm Springs!!"

Posted by Carla Muss-Jacobs, Principal Broker (503) 810-7192, Buyer Focused ~ Buyer Results (BuyersAgentPortland.com | Portland Metro Exclusive Buyers Agent | 100% Buyer Representation ~ 100% of the Time) over 6 years ago

It is pretty scary.  On average, we're around 2001 or so at the moment and holding.  But some properties that are worn and somewhat neglected are back in the 90's.  1985 prices! That's scary.  

Posted by Gabe Sanders, Stuart Florida Real Estate (Real Estate of Florida specializing in Martin County Residential Homes, Condos and Land Sales) over 6 years ago

Ouch, 8-10 years!  That's brutal baby!  I too think Vegas would be a great place for a 2nd home.  Maybe someday.

Posted by Justin Dibbs, REALTOR® - Ashburn Virginia Homes for Sale (Pearson Smith Realty) over 6 years ago

Renee, with all those visitors leaving money in Vegas, this would be the PERFECT time to pick up a 2nd home in Vegas.   CALL RENEE TODAY!

Posted by Joan Cox, Denver Real Estate - Selling One Home at a Time (Metro Brokers - House to Home, Inc. - Denver Real Estate - 720-231-6373) over 6 years ago

Carla & Joan:  LOVE the marketing tips!

Kevin:  LOL!

Thanks everyone for the comments!

Posted by Renée Donohue, Las Vegas Real Estate Broker - www.urLVhome.com (Savvy Home Strategies Realty, LLC-REALTOR®-Estate-Probate) over 6 years ago

Renee,

That 70% underwater number is mind-boggling, showing how overheated the real estate market in Vegas got a few moons ago. The estimated recovery time is loooong.

Posted by Esko Kiuru over 6 years ago

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